Developmental Spiral

~ David McCormick

Based on Ray Kurzweil’s theories of accelerating technological change, the following table illustrates an approximate timeline:

Homo Sapiens 100,000 years
Tribal 40,000 years
Agricultural 7,000 years
Empires 2,500 years
Scientific 380 years (1500-1770)
Industrial 180 years (1770-1950)
Information 70 years (1950-2020)
Symbiotic 30 years (2020-2050)
Autonomy 10 years (2050-2060)

Relative growth rates in computer systems are remarkably stable:

  • memory outgrows processors
  • processors outgrow wired bandwidth
  • bandwidth outgrows wireless capabilities

So we expect:

  1. New storage tech first and fastest
  2. New processors and applications
  3. New wired communication hardware and protocols
  4. New wireless technology and improvements in transfer rates last and slowest
Advertisements

Published by David McCormick

Seeking to support a law firm or regulatory investigator with research and legal analysis of emerging technologies that disrupt traditional ethics, such as computer algorithms (A.I.), drones and robotics, privacy and encryption, and biotechnology. Excellent communication skills, computer and Internet fluency, and breadth of scientific knowledge are unmatched among paralegals, despite embarking upon a career change.