Based on Ray Kurzweil’s theories of accelerating technological change, the following table illustrates an approximate timeline:
Homo Sapiens | 100,000 years |
Tribal | 40,000 years |
Agricultural | 7,000 years |
Empires | 2,500 years |
Scientific | 380 years (1500-1770) |
Industrial | 180 years (1770-1950) |
Information | 70 years (1950-2020) |
Symbiotic | 30 years (2020-2050) |
Autonomy | 10 years (2050-2060) |
Relative growth rates in computer systems are remarkably stable:
- memory outgrows processors
- processors outgrow wired bandwidth
- bandwidth outgrows wireless capabilities
So we expect:
- New storage tech first and fastest
- New processors and applications
- New wired communication hardware and protocols
- New wireless technology and improvements in transfer rates last and slowest